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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.